Population Momentum and Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study examined the impact of population momentum on growth in Nigeria. The specific objectives are to analyze the factors contributing to population momentum, explore the relationship between population momentum and growth, and assess how population momentum affects growth using statistical methods and historical data. Descriptive statistics were employed to understand the behavior of the data, revealing the mean, maximum, minimum, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis. A correlation matrix was used to determine the direction of relationships between the dependent variable (GDP per capita) and independent variables (life expectancy at birth, non-oil export, private consumption, population, and unemployment rate). The results indicate positive relationships between all independent variables and GDP per capita. The unit root test results necessitated the use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation technique. The ARDL bounds test confirmed a long-run relationship between the independent and dependent variables. In the short run, life expectancy at birth (LEB) had an insignificant negative impact on GDP per capita, while private consumption (PCN) and unemployment rate (UNEM) had significant negative impacts. Conversely, non-oil export (NOE) and population (POP) had positive impacts on GDP per capita. In the long run, life expectancy at birth, non-oil export, and population exhibited positive but insignificant impacts on GDP per capita. In contrast, private consumption and unemployment rate showed significant negative impacts. The study concluded that there is a strong positive relationship between population (POP) and GDP per capita, a proxy used to measure economic growth. Additionally, population momentum positively affects GDP per capita both in the short run and long run, although this impact is not significant. The study recommends promoting access to quality education and vocational training, ensuring affordable healthcare, expanding financial services, and utilizing data analytics and evidence-based policymaking to improve the population's skill level, health, and economic participation, thereby enhancing economic growth.