Industrialization and Youth Unemployment in Nigeria (an Ardl Approach)

This research investigates the influence of industrialization on youth unemployment in Nigeria from 1991 to 2022, employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze trends in both youth unemployment and industrial output. The study evaluates the industrial sector's contribution to economic growth and examines how industrial output, alongside financial factors such as bank credit, interest rates, and inflation, correlates with youth unemployment. Findings indicate that youth unemployment has experienced fluctuations during the study period, with short-term relationships between industrial output and youth unemployment appearing complex. The ARDL bounds test confirms a significant long-term association among the variables, while the error correction model reveals a considerable speed of adjustment toward equilibrium. In the long run, both industrial output and specific financial factors show notable correlations with youth unemployment. These outcomes suggest that simply increasing industrial output is inadequate for reducing youth unemployment; instead, a more nuanced strategy that emphasizes labor-intensive industrialization and addresses financial constraints is necessary. The study advocates for policies that promote labor-intensive industries, rectify skills mismatches, enhance access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and invest in essential infrastructure to foster an environment conducive to industrial growth and sustainable job creation.