Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes in Odun Forest Reserve, Kwara State, Nigeria

ABSTRACT Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes significantly impact ecological balance, biodiversity and resource sustainability. This study focused on spatio-temporal analysis of LULC changes in Odun Forest Reserve, Kwara State, Nigeria to evaluate the extent, patterns and drivers of forest-cover transformations over a 41-year period. Remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were employed to analyze LULC changes from 1984 to 2025, using the iso-cluster (unsupervised) image classification methods. Landsat images of 1984 (TM), 1999 (ETM), 2003 (ETM), 2014 (OLI/TC) and 2025 (OLI-2/TC) were used to evaluate the spatial extent, change trends and dynamics within the forest reserve. Five major land-uses/cover classes were distinguished within the reserve, which include forest plantation, natural forest, farmland/waterbodies, fallowland/mining and bareland. The results revealed substantial changes in the forest reserve, over the entire study period (1984-2025), there were losses in natural forest (146.52 ha, -39.6%), farmland/waterbodies (-196.65 ha, -80.9%) and bareland (-60.57 ha, 37.1%) at an annual rate of -0.97%, -1.97% and -1.5%, respectively. In contrast, an increase was observed in forest plantation 336.87 ha (5424.6%) and fallowland/mining 66.87ha (14860.0%) at 132.3% and 362.4% per annum, respectively. The results further showed a decreasing trend for natural forest due to illegal exploitation and forest destruction during mining activities, while forest plantation and fallowland/mining areas were predicted to be on the rise. The land-cover maps produced in this study will serve as a planning and management tool to guide reforestation activities and other specific interventions in the forest reserve.