Effect of Price Variation on Maize Production in Nigeria (1991 – 2022)

Student: Elo Praise Esigie (Project, 2025)
Department of Agricultural Economics
Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomoso, Oyo State

Abstract

This study examines the effect of price variation on maize production in Nigeria from 1991 to 2022. The objectives include analyzing the trend of maize production, assessing long-run and short-run relationships between maize output and determinants, and identifying key influencing factors. Descriptive statistics and unit root tests established variable stationarity, while ARDL and Error Correction Model (ECM) captured both long- and short-term dynamics. Results show significant variability among variables; maize production rose until 2010 then became volatile. The ARDL bounds test confirmed a long-run relationship between production, producer price, harvested area, exchange rate and inflation. The study concludes that maize production is significantly influenced by price changes, inflation, exchange rate and land area. It recommends stabilizing economic conditions and reducing price volatility to enhance output and food security.

Keywords
maize production price variation ARDL inflation exchange rate agriculture Nigeria food security
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