Presidential Amnesty Programme in Niger Delta and Economic Development in Nigeria, 2015-2023

The Niger Delta, a region rich in resources yet plagued by conflict, has long struggled with the challenge of balancing economic development and peace. This research explores the impact of the Presidential Amnesty Programme in Niger Delta on Economic Development in Nigeria, 2015–2023, particularly focusing on crude oil production and pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta region. The research seeks to address two key questions: 1) Did the disarmament of Niger Delta militants enhance crude oil production in Nigeria from 2015 to 2023? 2) Did the implementation of the PAP reduce oil pipeline vandalism in the region during the same period? The study is grounded in the Relative Deprivation Theory, which suggests that addressing inequality and unmet needs through peacebuilding can foster stability and reduce violence. The research adopts an ex post facto design, utilizing secondary data sources such as reports from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), World Bank, and OPEC. Data analysis involved content analysis, including graphical representations to examine trends in crude oil production and pipeline vandalism before and after the PAP's implementation. The empirical analysis of the two hypotheses reveals insightful findings. The first hypothesis examines the relationship between the disarmament of militants and crude oil production. The data indicates a positive correlation between the disarmament of militants and an increase in oil production, suggesting that the PAP contributed to the stabilization of the oil sector, enhancing crude oil production. The second hypothesis explores the effect of the PAP on pipeline vandalism, revealing a reduction in pipeline attacks over the period. These findings imply that the implementation of the PAP has played a significant role in curbing the frequency of pipeline vandalism, contributing to greater stability in the region. Based on these findings, the study recommends that the Nigerian government should continue and expand the PAP’s initiatives, focusing on the reintegration of ex-militants, the creation of more job opportunities, and the provision of sustainable development programs in the Niger Delta. Further, the government should explore ways to ensure the long-term sustainability of peace in the region by addressing underlying issues such as poverty, unemployment, and environmental degradation.