Time Series Analysis on Monthly Reported Cases of Drug Addiction and Rehabilitation in National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, Sokoto

Student: ABDULAZIZ ABDULLAHI (Project, 2025)
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Umaru Ali Shinkafi Polytechnic, Sokoto, Sokoto State

Abstract

We used Box-Jekins ARIMA method to identify and estimate a times series model for drug addiction and rehabilitation in Sokoto state. The data set was obtained from NDLEA D. D. R. unit Sokoto State Command. And is for the period 2017 – 2023. Preliminary investigation of the data properties indicated that the series is stationary at the level. Six candidate models were identified to fit the series among which ARMA (2 2) was found to have the best fit with minimum information criterion. Diagnostic checking of the model residuals confirmed the adequacy of the model. The result of the forecast confirmed that drug addiction and rehabilitation cases will continue to persist in the state.

Keywords
drug addiction Sokoto NDLEA ARIMA time series forecasting rehabilitation Nigeria statistics data analysis
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